"Free" education combined with compulsory attendance has completely distorted the demand for teachers. It's not hard to estimate by how much.
If we abolished truancy laws probably 65% of CCSD students would dropout immediately, and not look back. That's ~200,000 kids who would refuse to go to *any* school -- academic, sports, arts, etc -- under any circumstances.
If CCSD charged actual cost for its "services" (~$12,000/kid*yr) it would immediately find itself noncompetitive with private schools. Sponsors of ~100,000 motivated, not destitute CCSD kids would find private alternatives, ranging from "classic" 180 d/y 6+ h/d schools down to 1 h/w schools. On average, about 1.5 h/d x 4d/w x 31 w/y.
Within CCSD the *real* aggregate demand is only ~18.6M h/y of instruction, not including the 3,000 or so hopelessly poor kids which CCSD would have to teach as part of the state's safety net.
Clark County already has ~34,000 kids in traditional private schools. ~36.7M h/y. When all those new privates open for the 100K influx, it's certain that the established schools will lose share. Over time, > 50%. But for starters, assume 5,000 (15%) leave. Net, that aggregate demand is:
~33.5M h/y [31.2M+ (5,000 x 4d/w x 3 h/d x 39 w/y)]
Therefore, in ALL of Clark County, the real demand for K-12 education services is ~52M hours of instruction per year.
Since each teacher works 2,000 h/y, as a first approximation the demand for teachers is ~26,000. Of course that would be for a 1:1 ratio and NOBODY ever mentions a CSR of *that* extent. 18:1 is a little more realistic. Therefore, a reasonable, ballpark guess is
1,444 teachers. That's right.
This estimate sounds *very* reasonable. It indicates that, as a result of unnecessary regulations, CCSD employs > 10X as many teachers as it should. Which is typical where government work is concerned.
By your estimates? Seriously? You honestly think that 200,000 students would refuse to go to school? Have you ever set foot in a school? Have you ever spent time talking to students about why they come to school? At the end of the day the majority of my students are sad that they have to go home. Many students that I have taught wish they could stay in school longer because they love learning and being able to socialize with their peers. This would not happen if they were to drop out.
ReplyDeleteYour numbers are laughable at best. Perhaps you shouldn't have gone into engineering because the material you are posting is incredibly funny and makes me laugh while rolling my eyes.
You got me. I saw a Big Government comment about parking meters, and was drawn too look.
ReplyDeleteSmall government at all costs, huh? Why? What are the benefits of a very small government? Nobody ever talks about that. All I ever hear about is the government is TOO BIG.
I like the fact that I can pay a gas tax, and have roads that I drive on paved, and maintained. I like that our state has facilities to help treat the mentally ill, rather than letting roam the streets, killing and committing other crimes. Not to mention how the mentally ill were treated in the past.
I like that we have fire and police officers around. Could you imagine what life would be like without police? I would probably have to move to California. Talk about taxes!
I like that the state has people who keep weights and measures honest! I don't have to worry about the gas station skimming me when I'm not paying attention.
Most of all, I'm glad that many of the people in our government who feel the same way you do are too ashamed to say it out loud. What kind of self centered monster are you to say that 65% of the student population dropping out would be a good thing. Kids who drop out of school don't do it because they would rather be with their friends. They do it because they don't think they'll ever amount to anything.
Our schools need adequate funding, which they are not currently getting. More than that, they need somebody to stand up and reform the system. Reform will cost money. Money comes from taxes. There are better ways to educate, but complaining about Big Government doesn't solve anything. It simply shows that you are not willing to pay your share for a better community.
I just realized that you posted this in April. You don't even believe your own crap anymore, and I've wasted my time even posting this.
Brian (Home School Dad)